Important Warning about Hypothetical Results


On this page, and others within this Web site, you are going to read about trading systems and their performance. It's important that you understand that all results reported on these pages must be treated as hypothetical results.

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.


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QLD and PSQ

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Hypothetical Monthly Results

 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2009                     +8.7%+5.7%+5.5%(9.7%)+2.6%+11.2%+0.3%(5.9%)(0.5%)
2010(3.5%)(0.3%)                                                            

 
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Show chart:  Standard  |  Monte Carlo  |  Personalized
Technical Analysis:  Moving Average daysX

Instruments Stocks
Strategies Market timing
System started 4/12/2009 (10 months ago)
System developer ETF 2X Contact
(Last login to C2: 2/9/10 5:33)

Vendor has created 2 other systems. Show



Recently Closed Trades

CSVDetails

System creator requested that closed trades data below be delayed by two days.

Opened ET B/S # Symbol   Price Closed Price Risk P/L
12/21/09 10:19 BUY 195 QLD 57.60 1/25/10 10:11 55.70 Normal ($370)
12/21/09 10:16 SELL 254 PSQ 44.43 12/21 10:18 44.41 Low $5
10/28/09 10:22 BUY 506 PSQ 48.09 12/21 10:16 46.25 High ($933)
7/20/09 15:21 BUY 241 QLD 41.45 10/28 12:14 50.14 Low $2,093
7/8/09 11:20 BUY 278 PSQ 58.15 7/16 14:54 54.67 High ($967)
4/13/09 9:30 BUY 315 QLD 31.35 7/7 12:13 35.03 Normal $1,159

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Statistics

Analytics  
Trades7
# Profitable4 (57.1%)
# months tracked10
Profitable months6 (60.0%)
Avg trade duration40.8 days
Annual return (compounded)14.8%
Average win$850
Average loss$756
Profit factor1.5:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical)19.01%
drawdown periodJune 09, 2009 to July 16, 2009
Correlation w/ S&P0.312
Sharpe ratio0.389
C2Realism Factor 94%
Keep after worst-case slippage 100.0%
Probabilities of future account loss  
Chance of 10% account loss51.2%
Chance of 20% account loss22.0%
Chance of 30% account loss7.3%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss0.0%
Average Profit to Drawdown (APD)0.35
Average P/L per unit traded$0.86


Reviews


No reviews have been written yet.

System Description

Proprietary timers which are based on both a fundamental and technical broad market analysis are used for long and short signals. Following a long signal QLD is bought. Following a short signal PSQ is bought. You can review the performance of this system from 2006 to present at etf2x.com.

- This system description was provided by the system developer. Collective2 has not verified it.

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30-day free trial, then $25 per monthDetails

There is a free trial period of 30 days before you are charged. You may cancel at any time before this (we send you an email at least a day before, to remind you, so there are no surprises.)

Then, after the trial, you will be charged $25 per month. (That is, we will charge you every 30 days - not when the month name on the calendar changes. So it's okay to sign up towards the end of a calendar month. You'll still get a full 30 days.)



Overview

Proprietary timers which are based on both a fundamental and technical broad market analysis are used for long and short signals. Following a long signal QLD is bought. Following a short signal PSQ is bought. See history of system at etf2x.com.

- This overview was provided by the system developer. Collective2 has not verified it.

Model Account Status

Started$10,000
Buy Power$11,330
Cash$10,987
Equity$288
Cumulative $$1,278
Total System Equity$11,278
Margined$0
Open P/L$264
System vendor has delayed data by 2 days for non-subs.


System Forum

All
October Review
Financial Scientist at 11/1/09 20:46ET

Hmmm.... every 78 days is asking for a lot of volatility in those securities. Watch your leverage.

October Review
Fred Penney at 11/1/09 20:19ET

My system will trade only once every 78 days or so on average and that's fine by me. As for comparisons which will be statistically signifi...

October Review
Karl Aschenbrenner at 11/1/09 20:00ET

Fred, Of all the systems where I computed the APR after commissions and sub fees to date there is only one which had over 2,000 trades, w...

October Review
Fred Penney at 11/1/09 19:00ET

Karl: I just reviewed your comments on your My Analyst page. How do you account for slippage with the systems that have 1000's of trades? Fred

Crowd Opinion

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